First Alert: Your first look at the Thanksgiving Day forecast

First Alert: Your first look at the Thanksgiving Day forecast
For now, I would keep your plans - don't change a thing. But if you have outdoor plans, keep watching the forecast as we continue to nail down specifics. (Source: WDAM)

PINE BELT (WDAM) - For those who are trying to put the finishing touches on your Thanksgiving plans, we are starting to get within range of offering a Thanksgiving forecast.

The overall weather pattern would suggest that the time frame between chances for rain, right now, is about five to eight days. That means, if the area gets rain on Friday of next week, the next chance for rain should arrive between Wednesday and Friday of the following week.

Meaning the day before Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.

Not great.

But there looks to be an overall shift in that pattern late next week. That would shift our chances for rain from every five to eight days, down to every three to five days.

It appears like the data is currently showing Turkey Day sandwiched between two chances for rain. It also shows it as a pretty mild day, with highs around 70 degrees. Medium-range model guidance is showing a chance for rain on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving as well as Black Friday, though.

While that is good news if you have to travel or play your yearly Turkey Bowl, don't plan on it being completely dry just yet.

Model data beyond five days can struggle to nail down timing. And the further out, in time, you look the less reliable the models are at nailing down specifics.

So, when looking 13 days into the future, keep in mind that there may be as much as 48 hours of variability between when model data suggests that rain will start and end.

And unfortunately, Thanksgiving falls within 48 hours of both chances for rain that the model data is suggesting before and after Thanksgiving Day.

So what does that mean? For now, I would keep your plans — don’t change a thing. But if you have outdoor plans, keep watching the forecast as we continue to nail down specifics.

The good news is there isn’t any data to suggest a big cold snap, nor any kind of frozen precipitation. There isn’t any data to suggest a big warm up nor any severe weather, either.

Can things change? Sure. It is South Mississippi after all. But for now, there is no data out there that suggests anything extreme.

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