FIRST ALERT: Invest 92L now ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Two’ as NHC issues watches, warnings for Gulf Coast

First Alert: Hot & sunny today with chance of rain, tropical system forming on the Gulf

WDAM (PINE BELT) - The National Hurricane Center has given Invest 92L the "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" moniker so they can issue watches, warnings, and advisories. That means the development of a Tropical Depression, and likely a Tropical Storm, is all but an inevitability now, according to the NHC. The Hurricane Hunters have been scheduled to fly into Invest 92L / PTC-2 Wednesday afternoon to attempt to find the center of the storm, collected data on if it is 'vertically stacked' and determine the wind speeds.

At a minimum, this will bring heavy rain and some gusty wind to our area starting today. And may stick around until as late as Monday.

What to expect:

As Invest 92L develops, expect the cloud cover to increase and the thunderstorm coverage to increase, too. That means just extra showers and storms in the vicinity that are loosely connected to Invest 92L. The main bulk of the rain won't arrive until the weekend, but due to the track of this system, there may be prolonged impacts to the area.

Right now, model data suggests Invest 92L PTC-2 will strengthen to a Tropical Storm - and perhaps even a weak Hurricane - before making landfall somewhere between Houston, Texas and New Orleans. Model guidance suggests landfall will occur sometime on Saturday.


It looks like heavy rain, flooding and some gusty wind will be the main concerns with this system. There is also a developing low-end tornado threat. Rainfall estimates show between 2″ and 12″ of rain possible for our area. That widespread between totals is because it is still too early to know the direct path. those totals will become more refined in the coming days.

The tornado threat will be for tropical-style tornadoes. These are very quick to develop and quick to die. They are often only on the ground for a few minutes and can develop so fast warnings may not be issued with much - if any - advanced warning. So if a storm develops near you in the coming days, and especially this weekend, please head inside because conditions may deteriorate very quickly.


The timeline is between Wednesday and Monday. With hit and miss storms Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. A more substantial threat for rain, wind and the potential for a tornado or two, arrives on Saturday and Sunday.


Storm track is still the big unknown. As is the storm strength. We will know more this evening as the Hurricane Hunter data gets put into the computer models. And we will know even more once Invest 92L gets an organized area of centralized low pressure. Until then, there are still many unknowns.

More Info:

For more scientific information on this - and other - forecasts, you can get extra details and a complete scientific breakdown over on Nick’s Blog.


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