The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of unorganized thunderstorms in the western Caribbean for the possibility of forming into a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
As of 9 a.m. Tuesday, the NHC is giving the system a 40 percent chance of forming in the next five days. That means you should consider the possibility of rain during the long Memorial Day weekend.
While strong upper-level winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit organization during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week while the system moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. -NHC
UPDATE: No big changes overnight. NHC still gives Invest 90-L a 40% Chance of development over the Gulf in the next 5 days. I'll have more on this in a few hours including new data that will be coming out. #mswx pic.twitter.com/aql9t7V8ql— Patrick Bigbie WDAM (@PatrickWDAM) May 22, 2018
While the models are in agreement that something may form later this week, they are not in agreement on strength or where it may go.
The American GFS Model keeps the system weaker and moves it over southern Florida and the coast of Georgia.
The European Model makes it a little stronger and brings it toward the Louisiana Coast. On that track, the system would have the possibility of giving us mainly rain, with some flooding and some wind.
Here’s the good news. If something does form, it would be, at most, a Tropical Depression or a weak Tropical Storm. If it does become a Tropical Storm, it would be named Alberto.
The WDAM First Alert Weather Team will continue to track the path of this system and keep you updated with the latest developments.