Nick's Weather Blog: December 23, 2015 Severe Weather Forecast - WDAM-TV 7-News, Weather, Sports-Hattiesburg, MS

weather

Nick's Weather Blog: December 23, 2015 Severe Weather Forecast

WDAM First Alert Weather Team WDAM First Alert Weather Team
PINE BELT -

Good morning, everyone. Here is a nerdy, followed by a not-so-nerdy, look at today's severe weather threat.

Showers and storms moving through the area this morning are mostly rain and wind with some thunder and lightning. But after these storms pass, the Pine Belt isn't in the clear. 

The threat for severe weather today will persist into the afternoon. 

The nerdy version:

Mesoanalysis shows that a plume of warm moist air will ride into the area from the southwest out ahead of a cold front and area of low pressure. While the most sheared environment will be to the north of I-20, there will be sufficient low-level helicity, shear, and lapse rates for the development of severe weather in the Pine Belt, too. Short-range models do indicate that the storms this morning may have done enough to work-over the atmosphere. This would  keep the chances of storm development in the afternoon down a bit. Latest HRRR weather model guidance shows a lack of storm development this afternoon because of the storms this morning. Will wait for subsequent runs before changing forecast. But, as has been said the last week, this is a boom-or-bust day. If storms develop this afternoon - due to the high CAPE values, shear greater than 45kts, helicity values over 250 and a Sig Tor value above 2 - they could develop, and turn severe rapidly. 

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a "Slight" risk with a 5% tornado risk because of the aforementioned parameters. The main concern with storms today will be rainfall rates up to 2" per hour, winds gusting more than 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters or half-dollars, and isolated tornadoes. 

The timeline puts this first batch of cells to the northeast of the Pine Belt by 11am. The next round of storms will be discrete supercells which may develop quickly starting around 2pm. Perhaps earlier if the sun peeks through the clouds.

Now, the not-so-nerdy version:

Shower and storms this morning will pass to the northeast during the next few hours. After a break in the action, more storms may develop this afternoon depending on how much these morning storms zapped the energy out of the atmosphere. Some of these storms may turn severe. The main concerns will be heavy rain, damaging winds, small hail and a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a "Slight" risk for severe weather today. That is a "2" on a 1-to-5 scale, with 5 being the highest. The SPC has also given us a "5%" tornado risk. That means you are five-times more likely to see a tornado today than any other day.

- Chief Meteorologist, Nick Lilja

Copyright WDAM 2015. All rights reserved. 

  • Local NewsLOCALMore>>

  • WDAM has learned more about the car wreck that killed 20 year old Tyone Clemons.

    More details revealed in wreck that killed EMCC athlete

    More details revealed in wreck that killed EMCC athlete

    Monday, November 20 2017 11:35 PM EST2017-11-21 04:35:30 GMT
    Tyone Clemons. SOURCE: EMCC AthleticsTyone Clemons. SOURCE: EMCC Athletics

    WDAM has learned more about the car wreck that killed 20 year old Tyone Clemons. He was an East Mississippi Community College defensive lineman, and was a former West Jones High School all star athlete. Jessica Bowman was at the scene in Jones County Monday learning more about who Clemons was in the car with and what happened during this deadly accident Saturday morning.  Best Friends, teammates and brothers. That's what best describes 20 year old Tyone Clemons and 19 year old T...

    More >>

    WDAM has learned more about the car wreck that killed 20 year old Tyone Clemons. He was an East Mississippi Community College defensive lineman, and was a former West Jones High School all star athlete. Jessica Bowman was at the scene in Jones County Monday learning more about who Clemons was in the car with and what happened during this deadly accident Saturday morning.  Best Friends, teammates and brothers. That's what best describes 20 year old Tyone Clemons and 19 year old T...

    More >>
  • Over 400 auto burglaries in Hattiesburg, HPD turns to technology to help

    Over 400 auto burglaries in Hattiesburg, HPD turns to technology to help

    Monday, November 20 2017 11:02 PM EST2017-11-21 04:02:19 GMT
    Photo credit: WDAMPhoto credit: WDAM

    So far, in 2017 the Hattiesburg Police Department has recorded 454 auto burglaries in the Hub City. MOBILE USERS WATCH LIVE HERE An auto burglary is considered a “Part 1 Offense,” and it’s one thing the police department is setting their sights on reducing. “Any citizen of Hattiesburg should be able to go to the actual local shopping center and go there and not have to worry about their vehicle getting broken in to," said Hattiesburg Police De...

    More >>

    So far, in 2017 the Hattiesburg Police Department has recorded 454 auto burglaries in the Hub City. MOBILE USERS WATCH LIVE HERE An auto burglary is considered a “Part 1 Offense,” and it’s one thing the police department is setting their sights on reducing. “Any citizen of Hattiesburg should be able to go to the actual local shopping center and go there and not have to worry about their vehicle getting broken in to," said Hattiesburg Police De...

    More >>
  • USM blasts Blue Mountain, 90-46

    USM blasts Blue Mountain, 90-46

    Monday, November 20 2017 10:30 PM EST2017-11-21 03:30:48 GMT
    Photo credit: USMPhoto credit: USM

    The University of Southern Mississippi opened play in the Sanford Pentagon Showcase Monday night about 1,100 miles from the site of the round-robin tournament’s next three rounds. 

    More >>

    The University of Southern Mississippi opened play in the Sanford Pentagon Showcase Monday night about 1,100 miles from the site of the round-robin tournament’s next three rounds. 

    More >>
Powered by Frankly