Statistics and field organizing pointing to an Obama landslide? - WDAM - TV 7 - News, Weather and Sports

Statistics and field organizing point to an Obama landslide, analysts say

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President Obama has a 99.8 percent chance of victory, according to numbers by a Princeton neuroscientist. (Source: Herald Online) President Obama has a 99.8 percent chance of victory, according to numbers by a Princeton neuroscientist. (Source: Herald Online)
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(RNN) - After several weeks of media reports and polls saying the presidential race is too close to call, there are now predictions coming out that President Obama will cruise to a landslide victory.

It sounds improbable after Mitt Romney was praised for his first debate performance and seemed to gather strong momentum to revive the GOP base and attract the attention of independent voters, but new polls and a few pundits say Obama will be the clear victor.

Nate Silver, the statistician and poll analyst for the New York Times who correctly predicted the outcome of 49 states in the 2008 election, wrote that Obama has a 92 percent chance of victory after averages from 12 national polls are looked at side-by-side with individual state polls in battleground states.

Silver writes that Obama leads polls in 19 battleground states, whereas Romney only leads in 3.

There are multiple scenarios that would give Romney an electoral college win, Silver writes, but that would mean a lot of polls would have to be wrong, and the statistic probability of a Romney win is about 8 percent - the same as getting an inside straight in a poker game.

Despite the numbers being in Obama's favor, Silver still believes it will be a tight race.

"IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we're predicting a landslide. We expect a close election," he tweeted Tuesday morning.

Neuroscientists have also called for an Obama victory. Sam Wang, a neuroscientist and biophysicist at Princeton University, applied statistical models he uses in figuring out people's brains to the presidential election.

Using two different (and very complicated) statistical models, Wang predicts either a 98.2 percent chance of an Obama re-election or a 99.8 percent chance. He also sees Obama winning 332 electoral votes while Romney only nabs a mere 206.

But it's not just polls that are making the case for a big Obama win; field organizing in battleground states is also seen as a huge edge for the president.

Journalist Al Giordano has interviewed Obama campaign volunteers working on-the-ground in battleground states and it appears that the president's organizing team is much more active than Romney volunteers and possibly even stronger than it was in 2008.

"There are more troops on the ground today than [Obama] had four years ago," Giordano wrote. "In the language of the architect of the most recent Super Bowl victor, New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin, they are 'finishing' strong."

That is especially evident on Ohio, where Giordano says Obama's field organization is not only stronger than Romney's, but assisted with 2,500 lawyers who are currently in the state in case issues of voter suppression or fraud arise.

And with strong organizing on the ground, phone banks around the country dialing in, and an edge in early voting, Giordano predicts an Obama win in North Carolina - despite several polls giving Romney a win there.

"In 2008, the polling organizations SurveyUSA, Mason-Dixon, Rasmussen and Zogby all had McCain beating Obama in North Carolina in their final pre-election polls," Giordano wrote. "How did Obama overcome that to win? Superior field organization."

Of course, there are also predictions of a Romney landslide, too.

Conservative columnist George Will is expecting a big Romney win, in part due to evangelical voters in Minnesota.

"I'm projecting Minnesota to go for Romney," Will said on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos. "It's the only state that's voted Democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there's the marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals, and I think could make the difference."

The marriage amendment aims to define marriage as a union strictly between a man and a woman.

Radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh also called for a Romney win based on the "Redskin Rule," which says the out-of-party wins the presidency when the Redskins lose the home game before an election.

"If the Redskins win at home, the incumbent party wins the presidential race, 17 out of 18 times going back to 1940," Limbaugh said on his show. "If the Redskins lose at home, the challenger prevails. Well, the Redskins lost to the Carolina Panthers. That means Romney wins."

With stats, campaign strategy analyses, marriage amendments, and football rules being used to try and determine the outcome of the election, some people might prefer to listen to Bob Dylan.

"Don't believe the media," Dylan told a crowd during an Obama campaign rally, according to the Associated Press. "I think it's going to be a landslide."

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