LAFAYETE, LA. - Even though satellite imagery is showing slightly better organization of the tropical disturbance near Jamaica, Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft will stay grounded today. Investigation flights were scheduled for yesterday and this afternoon, but the National Hurricane Center didn't see enough change in the system to warrant a flight.
This disturbance has been ragged as it has moved across the Atlantic and Caribbean. Tuesday and Wednesday, the system was linear in nature, even broken into three pieces, so it was very hard to tell where the most dominant feature was. This morning the early visible satellite imagery was showing more of a cluster near the eastern coast of Jamaica, which may be the start of system pulling itself together. Most computer models show slow development of this system, but the intensity models have really backed off since yesterday.
Rumors have been flying around that this is going to be a hurricane along the northern Gulf coast. While some extended models are suggesting this, there are other models that drift the system to Mexico or Florida. Extended models have a hard time tracking something that hasn't even developed. Until recon data is imported into the solution, a clearer picture of the track and intensity will be marginal at best. Therefore, try to pay attention to the near term forecast (1-2 Days) to track the actual development or dissipation of this disturbance.
Conditions may be more favorable for development Friday or Saturday as the wave moves over extremely warm waters covering the western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be very low. Plenty of moisture is available in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and the western Caribbean is typically a hot spot for tropical development during the month of June.