First Alert: Storms possible Thursday, but severe threat Marginal

First Alert: Storms possible Thursday, but severe threat Marginal
The Storm Prediction Center continues to show a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms in our area for Thursday afternoon and evening.

PINE BELT (WDAM) - The chance for severe weather across parts of the Pine Belt continues to diminish, but isn’t zero. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms in our area for Thursday afternoon and evening. That is a one-out-of-five on the one-to-five scale where five is the highest risk for severe weather.

What to expect:

Thursday will be warm and mostly cloudy ahead of a weakening line of storms that looks to move through the area during the afternoon and evening. The line of storms will break apart as they push through but will have just enough ‘umph’ left to give the area the threat for heavy rain and wind gusts up to 60 mph. A lot like last time, it is a counter-intuitive setup, where as the storms break apart, that may actually help the storms get better organized, increasing the threat for stronger wind gusts.

Threats:

The main concerns will be for heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60 mph and small hail. The tornado threat is low, but it isn’t zero.

Timing:

There may be isolated storms that develop ahead of the line of storms as early as 2 p.m. But the line of storms won’t arrive until after 7 p.m. and will move through the area from Northwest to Southeast overnight. The severe threat will end around 10 p.m. Storms may continue, though through the overnight and into Friday morning. These storms should remain elevated, limiting the severe potential.

Unknowns:

There aren't as many with this system as other recent systems. But one of the unknowns is just how organized storms will be able to become as the line falls apart.

More Info:

For more scientific information on this, and other, forecasts, you can get a complete scientific breakdown over on Nick’s Blog.

Preparations:

Have your NOAA Weather Radio programmed with fully-charged batteries available for it. If you must travel, make sure to check the weather conditions, watches, warnings and advisories before venturing out the door. Review your Severe Weather Plan and know what you would do if a severe storm or tornado was near you. If you don't feel comfortable riding out a storm where you live, make a plan regarding when you would leave your home and where you would go. Also, download the WDAM Weather App so, if the power goes out, you still have access to live, streaming coverage of any updates about the weather.

The WDAM First Alert Weather App:

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If your home or community is damaged in the storms, contact your county’s Emergency Management Agency here.

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