FIRST ALERT: Early forecast guidance suggests storms next Tuesday

FIRST ALERT: Early forecast guidance suggests storms next Tuesday
Next Tuesday could feature some rain and storms for South Mississippi. According to the CIPS Analogs, it could produce a few severe storms. (Photo source: WDAM)

PINE BELT (WDAM) - Early indications are suggesting that next Monday and Tuesday may be stormy for the Pine Belt. As of now, the threat for severe weather is on the lower end of the scale, but it isn't zero. The CIPS Analogs from Saint Louis University shows that, historically, similar storms systems have produced severe weather about half the time for the Pine Belt.

Please keep in mind, this is an early forecast and is likely to change a bit in the coming days. Please keep up with the forecast over the weekend so you know what to expect next week.

What to expect:

Clouds will increase on Monday as temperatures cruise into the 70s. A south wind will help pump in Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean air into the region. That all happens out ahead of the next cold front that will slide through the area as we head through Tuesday.

As of now, this is how things look to shake out: Showers and thunderstorms may develop on Monday afternoon, but those will be few and far between. And very few, if any, will be severe. Overnight into Tuesday we may have a few showers and storms here and there, but these are not anticipated to be severe, either.

Into Tuesday mid-morning and mid-day, as the front finally pushes through, a line of showers and storms, some severe, will pass through the Pine Belt. These should clear the area by Tuesday evening.

Threats:

In any of the severe storms that may develop, the atmosphere should be able to support heavy rain, localized flooding, frequent lightning, wind gusts greater than 60 mph, small hail, and a few tornadoes.

While localized flooding is still a concern, the threat for widespread flooding like we saw in December is looking less likely.

Timing:

It is still a bit too early for specifics, but what we do know is that storms may begin as early as Monday afternoon, but those will be rather isolated. The line of storms looks to arrive Tuesday morning and should get out of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening.

These times are not exact. It may change over a bit earlier or later depending on your specific location and howthis storm system evolves.

Unknowns:

  1. The exact timing of events. Because this next system is still four days out, there is a lot that can change with specifics on timing.
  2. The true threat for severe weather is still an unknown too. The overall threat for widespread severe weather will be dictated by how far north the warm front gets, and when it gets there. And, sadly, that isn’t something that model guidance can predict with much specific accuracy at this point.
  3. We don’t know how severe the weather will be near your house nor if there will be a tornado near your town. We simply can’t know this until, generally, individual severe thunderstorms have developed. 

More Info

For more scientific information on this - and other - forecasts, you can get a complete scientific breakdown over on Nick's Blog.

Preparations:

Have your NOAA Weather Radio programmed with fully-charged batteries available for it. If you must travel, make sure to check the weather conditions, watches, warnings and advisories before venturing out the door. Review your Severe Weather Plan and know what you would do if a severe storm or tornado was near you. If you don't feel comfortable riding out a storm where you live, make a plan regarding when you would leave your home and where you would go. Also, download the WDAM Weather App so, if the power goes out, you still have access to live, streaming coverage of any updates about the weather.

The WDAM First Alert Weather App:

Take the same tools the WDAM First Alert Weather team uses with you anywhere you go. Download the WDAM First Alert Weather app today for real-time interactive radar, location-based severe weather alerts and a constantly updated forecast for wherever you are.

Plan your day with an hour-by-hour forecast tailored for home, work or anywhere on-the-go. Our WDAM First Alert Weather app can tell you if a storm near you has hail, strong winds or rotation.

Here are some more features of the WDAM First Alert Weather app:

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Apple users can download the app here. Android users can download the app here.

If your home or community is damaged in the storms, contact your county’s Emergency Management Agency here.

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